Bells 2024 | Fantasy Forefront: Pre-Event Picks & Stats
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With Bells on the horizon and the Round of 32 looming, it's crunch time for your fantasy lineup. Forget the fluff—this is where cold, hard data meets insider knowledge to carve out your path to fantasy dominance. We've sliced through the noise, offering you our distilled Fantasy Tiers, a no-BS guide crafted from the raw stats and gritty performances that matter.
This isn't about playing it safe; it's about making those sharp, informed picks that separate the legends from the weekend warriors. Whether you’re backing the heavy hitters or banking on the underdogs, our guide is your blueprint to navigating the Bells battlefield. Lock in your lineup, and let’s get ready to rumble.
It is important to review this again once the heat draw for the round of 32 is released as some surfers may be on fire / have an easier brackets.
Men's
Tier A
Favourites: John John Florence, Ethan Ewing, Griffin Colapinto
Dark Horses: Jordy Smith
Tier B
Favourites: Gabriel Medina, Leonardo Fioravanti, Italo Ferreira, Ryan Callinan
Dark Horses: Crosby Colapinto
Tier C
Favourites: Samuel Pupo, Cole Houshmand
Women's
Tier A
Favourites: Molly Picklum
Tier B
Favourites: Caroline Marks, Tyler Wright
Dark Horses: Tatiana Weston-Webb, Brisa Hennessy
Tier C
Favourites: Sally Fitzgibbons
Dark Horses: India Robinson
The Terms
See below for a glossary of each term below:
Surferlytics Rating
Basis of Calculation:
- The Surferlytics Rating is calculated based on the outcomes of heats—wins and losses. After each heat, a surfer's rating is adjusted, adding or subtracting points based on the result.
Calculation Method:
- Win/Loss Outcome: A win results in gaining points, while a loss leads to losing points. The number of points gained or lost depends on the expected outcome, which is determined by the difference in ratings between the competing surfers before the heat.
- Rating Difference: The magnitude of rating adjustment after a heat depends on the difference in Surferlytics Ratings between the competitors. A win against a higher-rated surfer results in gaining more points than a win against a lower-rated surfer, reflecting the unexpected nature of the outcome.
- Expectation Factor: Before a heat, the system calculates the expected result based on the ratings of the two competitors. The actual result of the heat compared to this expectation determines the exact change in points.
Recent Heat Momentum
Surferlytics Rating Change: The core of this metric is the change in a surfer's Surferlytics rating, which adjusts after each heat based on the outcome and the rating of the opponent.
Last Five Heats: Focusing on the most recent five heats allows the metric to capture the surfer's current form, reflecting how well they are competing in the present moment.
Calculation Method:
- For each of the last five heats, the change in the Surferlytics rating (whether an increase or decrease) is calculated. This could involve gaining points for a win, especially against a higher-rated opponent, or losing points for a defeat.
- These changes are then summed to provide an aggregate score representing the surfer's recent momentum.
Betting Odds and Probabilty
Betting Odds:
Numerical representation of the probability of the surfer winning the event, used by TAB and Sportsbet (Australian bookmakers) to indicate the likelihood of a surfer winning or placing in an event.
Betting Probability:
The implied probability of an outcome occurring, derived from the betting odds. It indicates the chance of a surfer winning or achieving a specified result in an event.
Historical Event Performance
Base Metric - Heat Wins: At its core, this metric considers the number of heat wins a surfer has accumulated at the event throughout their career. This provides a basic measure of success and competitiveness.
Temporal Weighting: Recognizing that a surfer's more recent performances are likely more indicative of their current ability and form, the metric applies a weighting system. Recent years are given more significance, meaning a win in the latest event has a greater impact on the rating than a win several years back.
Calculation Method:
- Each heat win is assigned points, with more recent wins scoring higher points due to the temporal weighting.
- These points are then aggregated to produce a comprehensive score for each surfer, reflecting both their historical success and current form at the event.
Historical Event Performance Metrics
Heats Surfed: The total number of competition heats a surfer has participated in, providing insight into their experience level.
Heat Wins: The number of heats a surfer has won in their career for the current event.
Quarterfinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the quarterfinals for this event in their career.
Semifinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the semifinals for this event in their career.
Finals: The number of times the surfer has reached the finas for this event in their career.
Avg Heat Score: The average score of their heats in their career for this event.
Heat win %: The percentage of heats won out of the total heats surfed.
Best Heat Score: The highest score a surfer has achieved in a single heat in their career for the current event.
Best Wave Score: The highest wave score a surfer has achieved in their career for the current event.
Excellent Heats: Heats where a surfer's score is above 16, indicating an exceptional performance.
Excellent Waves: The number of times a surfer has a wave scored 8 points or higher.
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