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Portugal 2024 | Fantasy Team Primer

The Stats

As we gear up for Peniche, it's the perfect moment for to pick your preliminary fantasy team before the Round of 32 starts, ensuring you locking a team in before fantasy closes. The data below has been specially tailored into the Fantasy Tiers to help to guide your decisions.

Men's Primer Table

Women's Primer Table

The Terms

See below for a glossary of each term below:

Surferlytics Rating

Basis of Calculation:

  • The Surferlytics Rating is calculated based on the outcomes of heats—wins and losses. After each heat, a surfer's rating is adjusted, adding or subtracting points based on the result.

Calculation Method:

  • Win/Loss Outcome: A win results in gaining points, while a loss leads to losing points. The number of points gained or lost depends on the expected outcome, which is determined by the difference in ratings between the competing surfers before the heat.
  • Rating Difference: The magnitude of rating adjustment after a heat depends on the difference in Surferlytics Ratings between the competitors. A win against a higher-rated surfer results in gaining more points than a win against a lower-rated surfer, reflecting the unexpected nature of the outcome.
  • Expectation Factor: Before a heat, the system calculates the expected result based on the ratings of the two competitors. The actual result of the heat compared to this expectation determines the exact change in points.

Recent Heat Momentum

Surferlytics Rating Change: The core of this metric is the change in a surfer's Surferlytics rating, which adjusts after each heat based on the outcome and the rating of the opponent.

Last Five Heats: Focusing on the most recent five heats allows the metric to capture the surfer's current form, reflecting how well they are competing in the present moment.

Calculation Method:

  • For each of the last five heats, the change in the Surferlytics rating (whether an increase or decrease) is calculated. This could involve gaining points for a win, especially against a higher-rated opponent, or losing points for a defeat.
  • These changes are then summed to provide an aggregate score representing the surfer's recent momentum.

Betting Odds and Probabilty

Betting Odds:
Numerical representation of the probability of the surfer winning the event, used by TAB and Sportsbet (Australian bookmakers) to indicate the likelihood of a surfer winning or placing in an event.

Betting Probability:
The implied probability of an outcome occurring, derived from the betting odds. It indicates the chance of a surfer winning or achieving a specified result in an event.

Historical Event Performance

Base Metric - Heat Wins: At its core, this metric considers the number of heat wins a surfer has accumulated at the event throughout their career. This provides a basic measure of success and competitiveness.

Temporal Weighting: Recognizing that a surfer's more recent performances are likely more indicative of their current ability and form, the metric applies a weighting system. Recent years are given more significance, meaning a win in the latest event has a greater impact on the rating than a win several years back.

Calculation Method:

  • Each heat win is assigned points, with more recent wins scoring higher points due to the temporal weighting.
  • These points are then aggregated to produce a comprehensive score for each surfer, reflecting both their historical success and current form at the event.

Historical Event Performance Metrics

Heats Surfed: The total number of competition heats a surfer has participated in, providing insight into their experience level.

Heat Wins: The number of heats a surfer has won in their career for the current event.

Quarterfinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the quarterfinals for this event in their career.

Semifinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the semifinals for this event in their career.

Finals: The number of times the surfer has reached the finas for this event in their career.

Avg Heat Score: The average score of their heats in their career for this event.

Heat win %: The percentage of heats won out of the total heats surfed.

Best Heat Score: The highest score a surfer has achieved in a single heat in their career for the current event.

Best Wave Score: The highest wave score a surfer has achieved in their career for the current event.

Excellent Heats: Heats where a surfer's score is above 16, indicating an exceptional performance.

Excellent Waves: The number of times a surfer has a wave scored 8 points or higher.

Conditions Forecast Overview & Competitor Strategy

The event window promises a dynamic showcase of surfing skills. Early days offer a chance to see surfers navigate more manageable conditions, focusing on technical maneuvers. Midweek brings the excitement of larger, powerful waves, ideal for witnessing dramatic tube rides and bold, critical surfing. As conditions stabilize, spectators can enjoy a blend of high-performance surfing with cleaner, more tactical competition. The varied conditions ensure a thrilling spectator experience, highlighting the adaptability and prowess of the world's best surfers in one of the most iconic surf locations.

Surfline Forecast: link here

To match the detailed breakdown format provided for Sunset, here's a structured summary for Peniche:

Early Forecast (Wednesday, 6/3 to Thursday, 7/3)

  • Starts with smaller, 2-3 ft waves, transitioning to larger 6-8 ft swells.
  • Conditions vary from fair to poor, with increasing wave energy.
  • Winds pick up, impacting surf quality.

Peak Conditions (Friday, 8/3 to Sunday, 10/3)

  • Swell peaks at 6-8+ ft, with the best conditions expected on Friday morning.
  • Wave energy is high, suggesting powerful surf.
  • Wind speed varies, influencing wave shape and competition feasibility.

Stabilizing Conditions (Monday, 11/3 to Wednesday, 13/3)

  • Maintains 6-8 ft waves early, reducing to 4-6 ft by midweek.
  • Ratings range from poor to fair, with Tuesday afternoon potentially offering fair conditions.
  • Wind and wave energy decrease, suggesting more predictable surf.

Closing Forecast (Thursday, 14/3 to Sunday, 17/3)

  • Swell size decreases to 2-3+ ft, with conditions improving to fair to good.
  • Wave energy and consistency drop, indicating less challenging conditions.
  • Mild winds and warmer weather are expected, offering comfortable competition conditions.

This structured approach provides a comprehensive view of the evolving conditions at Peniche, helping to identify the most favorable days for competition based on wave size, quality, and wind factors.

Favoured Surfers for the conditions

The most likely run days for the event, considering both wave size and quality, appear to be Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, when conditions provide a balance between challenge and opportunity for high-performance surfing.

  • Early to Midweek (Larger, Challenging Swells): Surfers with proven records in heavy conditions, like John John Florence and Kelly Slater, who have demonstrated exceptional skill in navigating and dominating Pipeline's powerful tubes, will have an edge. Their deep local knowledge and ability to read shifting conditions will be advantageous.
  • Midweek Peak (Optimal Conditions): Competitors known for their barrel riding prowess, such as Gabriel Medina and Italo Ferreira, can capitalize on their aggressive approach to take on deep, critical sections of the wave. Their quick reflexes and adaptability to rapidly changing wave patterns will serve them well.
  • Later Week (Smaller, Cleaner Conditions): Technical surfers with a knack for aerials and precise maneuvering, like Kanoa Igarashi, will find these conditions suitable for showcasing their skills. Their ability to generate speed and perform high-scoring maneuvers in less powerful waves could see them advancing through heats.
  • Overall Strategy: Success will hinge on surfers' ability to adapt their strategies daily, blending barrel riding skills with aerial and technical maneuvers. Competitors must also excel in wave selection, a critical factor at Pipeline due to its variable nature.

This approach demands a versatile skill set, with a premium on adaptability, wave knowledge, and a balanced repertoire of maneuvers suited to both powerful barrels and technical surfing in varying conditions

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