Sign in Subscribe
4 min read

Margaret River 2024 | Men's Historical Performance

Margaret River 2024 | Men's Historical Performance

Margaret River 2024 | Quick Links

Past Performers | Tier A:

    1. John John Florence: With an Event Historic Score (EHS) of 100 and having participated in 9 events, Florence stands out as the most consistent and high-performing surfer in Tier A at Margaret River. His experience and high Surferlytics rating of 84 underline his reliability as a top pick.
    2. Griffin Colapinto: Although he has participated in fewer events (5), Colapinto's surferlytics rating of 87 and an EHS score of 67 indicate strong performances. His upward trajectory in recent years makes him a solid choice.
    3. Jack Robinson: As a local, Robinson has a distinct advantage, however this has not truly been reflected in his relatively lower EHS score of 42, when compared with JJF and Griff from 5 events. His high surferlytics rating and deep understanding of the break and conditions at Margaret River make him a valuable pick despite a relatively lower EHS score compared to the top two.

Past Performers | Tier B:

    1. Gabriel Medina: A veteran with 8 event participations and an impressive EHS score of 66. Medina's Surferlytics rating of 84 highlights his competitive edge.
    2. Jordy Smith: Participating in 9 events with an EHS of 63, Smith's extensive experience and consistent performance make him a valuable pick.
    3. Italo Ferreira: With a Surferlytics rating of 56 and an EHS score of 57 from 7 events, Ferreira’s aggressive style can pay off big in the right conditions.
    4. Matthew McGillivray: A dark horse with an EHS score of 40 from only 3 events, indicating a strong potential for high returns.
    5. Ryan Callinan: Adding Callinan to the list, with an EHS score of 39 from 5 events. His consistent performance and experience at Margaret River make him a potential high-value selection.

Past Performers | Tier C:

    1. Caio Ibelli: The standout in Tier C with an EHS score of 29 across 6 events. His lower Surferlytics rating of 10 might deter some, but his historical performance at Margaret River suggests potential for high value.
    2. Callum Robson: With just 2 event participations but a promising EHS score of 23, Robson represents a potential high-reward pick for fantasy players looking to gamble on emerging talent.
    3. Samuel Pupo: Pupo makes the list with an EHS score of 19 from just 2 events, indicating strong performances when he's competed. While he's a bit more of a gamble, his potential upside in the conditions at Margaret River could make him a sleeper pick for fantasy players looking for an edge.

Men's Historical Performance | Surferlytics Score

This table shows the Surferlytics scores per year for each year that the surfer participated in the event.

Men's Historical Performance | Places

This table shows the places per year for each year that the surfer participated in the event.

Men's Historical Performance | Rounds

This table shows the rounds per year for each year that the surfer participated in the event.

The Terms

See below for a glossary of each term below:

Surferlytics Rating

Basis of Calculation:

  • The Surferlytics Rating is calculated based on the outcomes of heats—wins and losses. After each heat, a surfer's rating is adjusted, adding or subtracting points based on the result.

Calculation Method:

  • Win/Loss Outcome: A win results in gaining points, while a loss leads to losing points. The number of points gained or lost depends on the expected outcome, which is determined by the difference in ratings between the competing surfers before the heat.
  • Rating Difference: The magnitude of rating adjustment after a heat depends on the difference in Surferlytics Ratings between the competitors. A win against a higher-rated surfer results in gaining more points than a win against a lower-rated surfer, reflecting the unexpected nature of the outcome.
  • Expectation Factor: Before a heat, the system calculates the expected result based on the ratings of the two competitors. The actual result of the heat compared to this expectation determines the exact change in points.
  • Normalisation: The ratings for each of the surfers is then normalised into a scale of 10-100. This is to allow for easier interpretation of the data.

Event Historial Score

Base Metric - Heat Wins: At its core, this metric considers the number of heat wins a surfer has accumulated at the event throughout their career. This provides a basic measure of success and competitiveness.

Temporal Weighting: Recognizing that a surfer's more recent performances are likely more indicative of their current ability and form, the metric applies a weighting system. Recent years are given more significance, meaning a win in the latest event has a greater impact on the rating than a win several years back.

Calculation Method:

  • Each heat win is assigned points, with more recent wins scoring higher points due to the temporal weighting.
  • These points are then aggregated to produce a comprehensive score for each surfer, reflecting both their historical success and current form at the event.
  • Normalisation: The ratings for each of the surfers is then normalised into a scale of 0-100. This is to allow for easier interpretation of the data.

Historical Event Performance Metrics

Heats Surfed: The total number of competition heats a surfer has participated in, providing insight into their experience level.

Heat Wins: The number of heats a surfer has won in their career for the current event.

Quarterfinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the quarterfinals for this event in their career.

Semifinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the semifinals for this event in their career.

Finals: The number of times the surfer has reached the finas for this event in their career.

Avg Heat Score: The average score of their heats in their career for this event.

Heat win %: The percentage of heats won out of the total heats surfed.

Best Heat Score: The highest score a surfer has achieved in a single heat in their career for the current event.

Best Wave Score: The highest wave score a surfer has achieved in their career for the current event.

Excellent Heats: Heats where a surfer's score is above 16, indicating an exceptional performance.

Excellent Waves: The number of times a surfer has a wave scored 8 points or higher.

Member discussion