Margaret River 2024 | Fantasy Forefront: Pre-Event Picks & Stats
Margaret River 2024 | Quick Links
Margaret River: The Basics
- Swell Source & Direction: The waves here roll in from winter storms starting south of Africa, cruising across the ocean. These storms are like a non-stop wave factory all year. The peak swell period peaks from April to September.This spot catches waves from nearly any direction, but SW to W swells are the golden ticket.
- Wave Style: Water moves from deeper water converging into a shallow reef which guide the waves to break in an A-frame allowing both regular and goofy footers to choose their direction of choice.
- Wind Conditions: The wave prefers to have light E winds. This often occurs in the mornings giving us the glassy conditions.
Optimal Strategy for Picking Winners:
Based on the correlation between the surfers’ performance and their characteristics, an optimal strategy would emphasize the following attributes in a surfer:
- Power and Precision in Surfing Style: Look for surfers who are known for their powerful turns and precise execution on large waves. Success at Margaret River often comes down to the surfer's ability to harness the power of the waves with confidence and control.
- Adaptability to Conditions: Given Margaret River's variable conditions, surfers who have demonstrated an ability to adapt—switching between aggressive power surfing and innovative aerial maneuvers, depending on what the wave demands—are more likely to win.
- Competitive Intelligence and Heat Strategy: Pay attention to surfers who have a strong track record of making smart decisions under pressure, particularly in wave selection and priority management. Those who can maintain composure and strategy throughout the heat, capitalizing on scoring opportunities while minimizing risks, tend to perform better.
- Historical Success and Momentum: Consider surfers with a history of strong performances at Margaret River, as experience at this particular break can provide a competitive edge. Additionally, look at their recent momentum in the tour leading up to the event, as confidence and form can be telling indicators of potential success.
Men's Fantasy Overview
Tier A
There are some hard picks in the Tier A for this event. The favourites for this event have all got an equal likelihood of doing well. It will be important to pick the surfers who have the easiest bracket.
Favourites: John John Florence, Griffin Colapinto, Jack Robinson, Ethan Ewing
Dark Horses: Barron Mamiya
Tier B
Gabi will be looking to perform well this year in order to make the mid-season cut. He typically surfs well under pressure and we should expect for him to go on a tear.
Favourites: Jordy Smith, Gabriel Medina, Matthew McGillivray, Italo Ferreira
Dark Horses: Leonardo Fioravanti, Yago Dora, Liam O'Brien
Tier C
Favourites: Caio Ibelli, Samuel Pupo
Dark Horses: Jacob Willcox, Otis North
Download the complete men's spreadsheet
Women's Fantasy Overview
Tier A
Another tough pick for the Tier A surfers, each would have a great chance of doing well this event. We will need to see which surfers are on form and have a desirable bracket coming into the R/16
Favourites: Johanne DeFay
Tier B
Favourites: Tyler Wright, Caroline Marks, Bettylou Sakura Johnson
Dark Horses: Tatiana Weston-Webb, Lakey Peterson
Tier C
Favourites: Sally Fitzgibbons, Bronte Macaulay, Isabella Nichols
Download the complete women's spreadsheet
The Terms
See below for a glossary of each term below:
Surferlytics Rating
Basis of Calculation:
- The Surferlytics Rating is calculated based on the outcomes of heats—wins and losses. After each heat, a surfer's rating is adjusted, adding or subtracting points based on the result.
Calculation Method:
- Win/Loss Outcome: A win results in gaining points, while a loss leads to losing points. The number of points gained or lost depends on the expected outcome, which is determined by the difference in ratings between the competing surfers before the heat.
- Rating Difference: The magnitude of rating adjustment after a heat depends on the difference in Surferlytics Ratings between the competitors. A win against a higher-rated surfer results in gaining more points than a win against a lower-rated surfer, reflecting the unexpected nature of the outcome.
- Expectation Factor: Before a heat, the system calculates the expected result based on the ratings of the two competitors. The actual result of the heat compared to this expectation determines the exact change in points.
- Normalisation: The ratings for each of the surfers is then normalised into a scale of 10-100. This is to allow for easier interpretation of the data.
Recent Heat Momentum
Surferlytics Rating Change: The core of this metric is the change in a surfer's Surferlytics rating, which adjusts after each heat based on the outcome and the rating of the opponent.
Last Five Heats: Focusing on the most recent five heats allows the metric to capture the surfer's current form, reflecting how well they are competing in the present moment.
Calculation Method:
- For each of the last five heats, the change in the Surferlytics rating (whether an increase or decrease) is calculated. This could involve gaining points for a win, especially against a higher-rated opponent, or losing points for a defeat.
- These changes are then summed to provide an aggregate score representing the surfer's recent momentum.
- Normalisation: The ratings for each of the surfers is then normalised into a scale of -10 to +10. This is to allow for easier interpretation of the data.
Betting Odds and Probabilty
Betting Odds:
Numerical representation of the probability of the surfer winning the event, used by TAB and Sportsbet (Australian bookmakers) to indicate the likelihood of a surfer winning or placing in an event.
Betting Probability:
The implied probability of an outcome occurring, derived from the betting odds. It indicates the chance of a surfer winning or achieving a specified result in an event.
Historical Event Performance
Base Metric - Heat Wins: At its core, this metric considers the number of heat wins a surfer has accumulated at the event throughout their career. This provides a basic measure of success and competitiveness.
Temporal Weighting: Recognizing that a surfer's more recent performances are likely more indicative of their current ability and form, the metric applies a weighting system. Recent years are given more significance, meaning a win in the latest event has a greater impact on the rating than a win several years back.
Calculation Method:
- Each heat win is assigned points, with more recent wins scoring higher points due to the temporal weighting.
- These points are then aggregated to produce a comprehensive score for each surfer, reflecting both their historical success and current form at the event.
Historical Event Performance Metrics
Heats Surfed: The total number of competition heats a surfer has participated in, providing insight into their experience level.
Heat Wins: The number of heats a surfer has won in their career for the current event.
Quarterfinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the quarterfinals for this event in their career.
Semifinals: The number of times the surfer has reached the semifinals for this event in their career.
Finals: The number of times the surfer has reached the finas for this event in their career.
Avg Heat Score: The average score of their heats in their career for this event.
Heat win %: The percentage of heats won out of the total heats surfed.
Best Heat Score: The highest score a surfer has achieved in a single heat in their career for the current event.
Best Wave Score: The highest wave score a surfer has achieved in their career for the current event.
Excellent Heats: Heats where a surfer's score is above 16, indicating an exceptional performance.
Excellent Waves: The number of times a surfer has a wave scored 8 points or higher.
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